Prognos study commissioned by the VDA shows profound change process through the transformation in the automotive industry to electromobility. The upheaval could cost around 190,000 jobs by 2035 - a quarter of which have already been lost. The biggest decline was in metalworking occupations, with a drop of 8,900 people (-16 per cent).
The automotive industry is undergoing a profound process of change. New market conditions due to stronger growth in other regions of the world, the transformation to electromobility, digitization and economic and political uncertainty characterize the current situation. These developments have clear consequences for Germany as an industrial location and for employees in the automotive industry. The German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) commissioned the research institute Prognos to examine the effects on employment in a comprehensive study. The study, entitled "Employment prospects in the automotive industry," shows which changes in employment have already taken place in recent years and which foreseeable changes are still to come for the automotive industry and its employees. The development of 700 occupations in the automotive industry was evaluated.
Due to the electrification of the drive train, overall lower employment is required for vehicle production than in the past. In addition, there are significant shifts within employment. This can be seen very clearly in the data. There have been disproportionate job losses in the industry's previous top jobs: Of the 10 largest occupational groups in the automotive industry, 7 are among those with the largest job losses since 2019. Jobs in mechanical engineering and industrial engineering as well as in metalworking in particular have lost relevance.
In contrast, there were increases in jobs in automotive engineering, which are mainly located at manufacturers, as well as in jobs in technical research and development, as well as in computer science, electrical engineering and software development. For example, employment in IT jobs in the automotive industry has increased by around a quarter since 2019 and by as much as 85% since 2013.
Significat shifts within employment
Nevertheless, the employment balance is negative and will probably continue to develop negatively: If the trend that began between 2019 and 2023 continues, employment in the automotive industry in Germany in 2035 will be 186,000 people lower than in 2019, when only a few purely battery-electric vehicles were manufactured. The main reason for this is transformation effects due to the switch to alternative drive systems. 46,000 jobs – around a quarter of them – have already been lost between 2019 and 2023, and around 140,000 more are expected to be lost by 2035. However, there is a high degree of uncertainty as to the actual extent of this. On the one hand, the existing or already emerging shortage of skilled workers in some areas can dampen growth in areas that will become more relevant in the future, and on the other hand, the political framework can both reinforce or dampen the trend.
The study makes clear, that the shift towards electromobility will lead to job losses. According to the VDA, the lower employment is first and foremost not an expression of a crisis, but a part of the transformation. "The transformation of our industry is a mammoth task“, comments VDA President Hildegard Müller. What is crucial, however, is that the political framework supports and accompanies this change. "The political framework decides whether future investments take place in Germany, whether the new things that are coming up will be created here with new jobs or somewhere else. The framework can therefore strengthen or dampen the employment effects", Müller says.
Source: VDA - German Association of the Automotive Industry
