According to The World Steel Association (worldsteel) latest Short Range Outlook (SRO), global steel demand in 2025 is projected to be flat compared to 2024, reaching about 1,750 million tonnes (Mt). A modest rebound of 1.3% is forecast for 2026, pushing global demand to 1,773 Mt.
Commenting on the outlook, Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, Chief Economist, Spanish Steel Producers Association (UNESID) and Chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee, said, “despite a considerable escalation of the global trade war and inherent uncertainties, we are cautiously optimistic that global steel demand will bottom out in 2025 and demonstrate moderate growth in 2026. This positive outlook is underpinned by the demonstrated resilience of the global economy, continued strength in public infrastructure investments in most major economies of the world, and the expected ease in financing conditions.
The projected growth in 2026 is driven by a mix of powerful regional trends.“We expect to see a slowdown in the decline of steel demand from China, coupled with strong growth in developing economies like India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Critically, we also anticipate the long-awaited return of steel demand growth in Europe“, said the Chief Economist of worldsteel. „However, the path forward isn’t without its challenges. First, the global manufacturing sector continues to face a squeeze from elevated production costs and sustained affordability pressures on consumers. Second, escalating trade tensions are having a direct, negative impact on steel demand in economies heavily reliant on the export of steel-intensive goods, such as machinery and automotive components. Finally, geopolitical uncertainties act as a major deterrent, chilling both consumer and investor confidence, and dampening steel demand across key markets.”
In China, demand is expected to fall by 2% this year, marking a continuation of the decline that began in 2021, worldsteel said, adding that the decline is projected to slow to 1% in 2026 as the country’s housing market stabilizes.
Steel demand in the developing world excluding China is forecast for robust growth, with a 3.4% increase in 2025 and a 4.7% increase in 2026. This expansion is primarily driven by strong performance in India, and some ASEAN and MENA countries.
Indian steel demand will continue to charge ahead with around 9% growth in its steel demand over 2025 and 2026, driven by continued growth in all steel using sectors. “In 2026, steel demand in India is projected to be almost 75 Mt higher than in 2020“, predicts the chair of the worldsteel Economics Committee.
The developed world is forecast to experience a 0.5% decrease in steel demand in 2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline since 2021. However, a recovery is anticipated in 2026, with projected growth of 1.5% as steel demand in the EU and US is expected to bottom out in 2025 and post modest growth thereafter. Conversely, steel demand in Japan and Korea is projected to remain subdued throughout 2026.
The EU+UK region’s demand is forecast to grow 1.3% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. The long-awaited return of steel demand growth in the EU reflects the impact of increased infrastructure and defence spending in the continent in combination with improving macroeconomic conditions such as lower inflation, easing credit conditions, and improvements in real household income, worldsteel said. ##Steel demand in the US is expected to rebound by 1.8% in 2025 thanks to front-loading of production ahead of increased tariffs and continued growth in infrastructure spending. In 2026, worldsteel expects steel demand to grow by 1.8%, aided by pent-up demand in residential construction and private investment, easing financing conditions, and reduced uncertainty.
Source: worldsteel
